The minimal expectation for the US-China trade meeting: "Progress"
Observers closely monitoring China believe that Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is unlikely to offer any immediate concessions during the upcoming meeting between the two sides in Switzerland this weekend.
TroibNews 
President Donald Trump indicated on Friday that he might soon reduce the high tariffs currently imposed on China. However, this does not imply that a deal between the two nations is imminent.
The president's potential openness to lowering U.S. tariffs on China—from at least 145 percent to around 80 percent—coincides with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's upcoming meetings with Chinese officials in Geneva this weekend. Nevertheless, such a concession, or any similar alteration to tariff rates, is unlikely to quickly revitalize trade, especially as imports of Chinese goods through West Coast ports continue to decline.
Experts closely following China assert that Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, who leads the discussions in Switzerland, is not expected to make any immediate concessions. Additionally, China is unlikely to hurry toward an agreement as it evaluates the Trump administration's objectives and how it can protect its own interests.
“He’s probably mostly in listening mode, and will take back what he receives to President Xi,” stated Christopher Adams, a former senior coordinator for China affairs at the Treasury Department. “I assume they’ve thought through various options and pathways, but I don’t think he has much authority to make decisions at the table.”
Trump's allies concede that his indication of a possible tariff reduction is largely symbolic, yet they argue it represents an important initial step toward easing tensions in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.
“It’s not the practical effect. It is about demonstrating progress,” noted one individual familiar with the discussions, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive topics. “Markets may react to the scent of progress with China trade.”
However, business leaders, lawmakers, and economists are warning that even if some progress is achieved this weekend, it may not be sufficient to mitigate serious economic repercussions.
“A 65 percent tariff cut sounds generous until you realize it’s still a wall, not a gateway,” commented a former Trump administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share candid expectations.
In 2024, two-way trade between the U.S. and China reached $582.4 billion, as reported by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, with $439.9 billion representing Chinese imports to the U.S. Trump's escalating tariffs have effectively stalled shipments from China in recent weeks, forcing businesses that sell toys, home goods, tools, and clothing to increase prices and complicating matters for U.S. manufacturers.
The dropping volumes at West Coast ports are already curbing imports into the country and limiting U.S. companies' ability to export. Small business owners are concerned about possible closures, while large retailers have indicated that if the tariffs remain for an extended period, consumers might see fewer products available by late summer.
Even if tariffs are reduced, many businesses have already faced adverse impacts. Retailers typically place orders for back-to-school inventory during this period, but many are delaying these decisions as they assess their abilities to fulfill orders amid the ongoing trade disruptions. Economists anticipate that higher prices will emerge by June or early July, as stockpiled inventory diminishes.
This weekend's discussions are merely the beginning of what is expected to be a protracted negotiation process that could span months or even years.
“Trump is convinced that the Chinese need us more than we need them. And I think the Chinese are equally convinced that we need them more than they need us,” remarked William Reinsch, a former senior U.S. trade official and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “That’s not a view that gets you to a resolution very quickly.”
Thus, the meeting serves more as an exchange of positions meant to set the stage for more detailed future negotiations.
“Look at it much more in terms of confidence-building measures taken early in a difficult negotiation to signal, diplomatically and politically, that there is going to be give and take and that there can be a real negotiation,” said Emily Kilcrease, who served as deputy assistant U.S. trade representative at the end of Trump’s first term and the start of former President Joe Biden’s administration.
China has adopted a wait-and-see approach, believing it can withstand any economic fallout from tariffs longer than the U.S., where consumers are already grappling with high inflation in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to a rapid decline in consumer sentiment.
“To pressure or coerce China in whatever way simply does not work,” stated Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, during a press conference earlier this week. “We will resolutely safeguard our legitimate interests and uphold international fairness and justice.”
Meanwhile, Beijing has signaled a potential interest in a deal that could ease tensions, having previously offered exemptions to some retaliatory tariffs on key U.S. imports, such as microchips, pharmaceuticals, and aircraft engines, all while maintaining their strong rhetoric.
“This is impactful in China,” commented Everett Eissenstat, deputy director of the National Economic Council during Trump’s first administration. “They’re willing to move, especially if what they are asked to do is purchase American goods and services.”
The White House is keen to highlight any advancements in the negotiations as part of its broader strategy to reassure consumers and stabilize financial markets that have reacted to U.S. trade policy and the sequence of new tariffs imposed by the president.
Trump remarked to reporters on Friday afternoon, “I think we’re going to come back with a fair deal for both China and us.” However, he also added that he would not be disappointed if Bessent returned without an agreement: “No, not at all. We already made a great deal.”
This reference pertained to the agreement the president announced with the United Kingdom on Thursday to reduce certain tariffs and trade obstacles. While significant symbolically as the first agreement following recent tariff threats against major trading partners, its impact on overall economic trends is expected to be minimal.
“This deal was low-hanging fruit, as the UK is 3% of US trade, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK, and the two countries have a long history of cooperation across other areas,” said Deputy Chief U.S. Economist Michael Pearce for Oxford Economics, a UK-based economic consulting firm.
“If the 10% global tariff is here to stay, the only other major tariff relief could come from a de-escalation with China, which still appears to be a distant prospect,” Pearce added, although he characterized the talks in Switzerland as “a positive.”
Nevertheless, the White House is betting on the notion that it will be China that ultimately feels the economic strain, particularly as the manufacturing slowdown caused by Trump's tariffs impacts Chinese factories.
“I know China wants everybody to believe that they can sustain the current environment, but they can’t,” stated an individual close to the White House, who chose to remain anonymous to discuss sensitive negotiations. “Their economy is seriously hurting.”
Republicans in Congress have expressed their support for the Trump administration's approach to negotiations with China, recognizing the complexity of the situation. Senator Thom Tillis pointed to a video posted by the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs last month that stated in English, “bowing to a bully is like drinking poison to quench your thirst.”
“That to me was a signal that they’re going to be a tough negotiator and we’re going to have to be up to the task,” Tillis remarked.
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
The president's potential openness to lowering U.S. tariffs on China—from at least 145 percent to around 80 percent—coincides with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's upcoming meetings with Chinese officials in Geneva this weekend. Nevertheless, such a concession, or any similar alteration to tariff rates, is unlikely to quickly revitalize trade, especially as imports of Chinese goods through West Coast ports continue to decline.
Experts closely following China assert that Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, who leads the discussions in Switzerland, is not expected to make any immediate concessions. Additionally, China is unlikely to hurry toward an agreement as it evaluates the Trump administration's objectives and how it can protect its own interests.
“He’s probably mostly in listening mode, and will take back what he receives to President Xi,” stated Christopher Adams, a former senior coordinator for China affairs at the Treasury Department. “I assume they’ve thought through various options and pathways, but I don’t think he has much authority to make decisions at the table.”
Trump's allies concede that his indication of a possible tariff reduction is largely symbolic, yet they argue it represents an important initial step toward easing tensions in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.
“It’s not the practical effect. It is about demonstrating progress,” noted one individual familiar with the discussions, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive topics. “Markets may react to the scent of progress with China trade.”
However, business leaders, lawmakers, and economists are warning that even if some progress is achieved this weekend, it may not be sufficient to mitigate serious economic repercussions.
“A 65 percent tariff cut sounds generous until you realize it’s still a wall, not a gateway,” commented a former Trump administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share candid expectations.
In 2024, two-way trade between the U.S. and China reached $582.4 billion, as reported by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, with $439.9 billion representing Chinese imports to the U.S. Trump's escalating tariffs have effectively stalled shipments from China in recent weeks, forcing businesses that sell toys, home goods, tools, and clothing to increase prices and complicating matters for U.S. manufacturers.
The dropping volumes at West Coast ports are already curbing imports into the country and limiting U.S. companies' ability to export. Small business owners are concerned about possible closures, while large retailers have indicated that if the tariffs remain for an extended period, consumers might see fewer products available by late summer.
Even if tariffs are reduced, many businesses have already faced adverse impacts. Retailers typically place orders for back-to-school inventory during this period, but many are delaying these decisions as they assess their abilities to fulfill orders amid the ongoing trade disruptions. Economists anticipate that higher prices will emerge by June or early July, as stockpiled inventory diminishes.
This weekend's discussions are merely the beginning of what is expected to be a protracted negotiation process that could span months or even years.
“Trump is convinced that the Chinese need us more than we need them. And I think the Chinese are equally convinced that we need them more than they need us,” remarked William Reinsch, a former senior U.S. trade official and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “That’s not a view that gets you to a resolution very quickly.”
Thus, the meeting serves more as an exchange of positions meant to set the stage for more detailed future negotiations.
“Look at it much more in terms of confidence-building measures taken early in a difficult negotiation to signal, diplomatically and politically, that there is going to be give and take and that there can be a real negotiation,” said Emily Kilcrease, who served as deputy assistant U.S. trade representative at the end of Trump’s first term and the start of former President Joe Biden’s administration.
China has adopted a wait-and-see approach, believing it can withstand any economic fallout from tariffs longer than the U.S., where consumers are already grappling with high inflation in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to a rapid decline in consumer sentiment.
“To pressure or coerce China in whatever way simply does not work,” stated Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, during a press conference earlier this week. “We will resolutely safeguard our legitimate interests and uphold international fairness and justice.”
Meanwhile, Beijing has signaled a potential interest in a deal that could ease tensions, having previously offered exemptions to some retaliatory tariffs on key U.S. imports, such as microchips, pharmaceuticals, and aircraft engines, all while maintaining their strong rhetoric.
“This is impactful in China,” commented Everett Eissenstat, deputy director of the National Economic Council during Trump’s first administration. “They’re willing to move, especially if what they are asked to do is purchase American goods and services.”
The White House is keen to highlight any advancements in the negotiations as part of its broader strategy to reassure consumers and stabilize financial markets that have reacted to U.S. trade policy and the sequence of new tariffs imposed by the president.
Trump remarked to reporters on Friday afternoon, “I think we’re going to come back with a fair deal for both China and us.” However, he also added that he would not be disappointed if Bessent returned without an agreement: “No, not at all. We already made a great deal.”
This reference pertained to the agreement the president announced with the United Kingdom on Thursday to reduce certain tariffs and trade obstacles. While significant symbolically as the first agreement following recent tariff threats against major trading partners, its impact on overall economic trends is expected to be minimal.
“This deal was low-hanging fruit, as the UK is 3% of US trade, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK, and the two countries have a long history of cooperation across other areas,” said Deputy Chief U.S. Economist Michael Pearce for Oxford Economics, a UK-based economic consulting firm.
“If the 10% global tariff is here to stay, the only other major tariff relief could come from a de-escalation with China, which still appears to be a distant prospect,” Pearce added, although he characterized the talks in Switzerland as “a positive.”
Nevertheless, the White House is betting on the notion that it will be China that ultimately feels the economic strain, particularly as the manufacturing slowdown caused by Trump's tariffs impacts Chinese factories.
“I know China wants everybody to believe that they can sustain the current environment, but they can’t,” stated an individual close to the White House, who chose to remain anonymous to discuss sensitive negotiations. “Their economy is seriously hurting.”
Republicans in Congress have expressed their support for the Trump administration's approach to negotiations with China, recognizing the complexity of the situation. Senator Thom Tillis pointed to a video posted by the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs last month that stated in English, “bowing to a bully is like drinking poison to quench your thirst.”
“That to me was a signal that they’re going to be a tough negotiator and we’re going to have to be up to the task,” Tillis remarked.
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
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