Trump Already Fixated on the Midterm Elections
Eighteen months before the election, the president is already intensely involved in efforts to maintain the GOP's majorities in Congress.
TroibNews 
Early in Donald Trump’s first term, the president took what he now believes was misguided advice: Don’t worry about the midterms, some advisers suggested at the time.
Their rationale was that if Democrats gained majorities in 2018, it would benefit him politically—providing a political opponent across the aisle and offering a chance to navigate a gridlocked Washington as he prepared for a challenging reelection, much like Bill Clinton did.
That strategy didn’t work out at all: Trump’s agenda stalled as he faced two years of relentless investigations along with two impeachments. He ultimately lost to Joe Biden anyway.
Now, Trump is adopting a different strategy.
Just a few months into his second term, the president is deeply involved in efforts to maintain GOP majorities in Congress. Contrary to dismissing the House or Senate, he’s optimistic about overcoming historical trends and keeping Democrats from gaining committee power and subpoena authority, according to five Republicans I've spoken with, including several close Trump allies.
He’s making early endorsements to prevent contentious primary battles that might divert crucial resources from the general election. Additionally, he’s actively recruiting and discussing how to best leverage his political influence with other Republicans, while also raising significant amounts of money for the 2026 elections.
Trump’s focus on the midterms is affecting Capitol Hill as GOP legislators work to integrate his expansive domestic policy agenda into law. On various issues, Trump seems to align with swing-district moderates—the “majority makers”—whose races will be pivotal in determining the majority.
He and his team have pushed back against severe cuts to Medicaid due, in part, to the adverse political consequences. They have been accommodating to blue-state Republicans advocating for an increase in the cap on state and local tax deductions—a policy Trump enacted in 2017, which contributed to his losses in suburban districts a year later.
He’s even considered the possibility of increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans, which he believes could counter Democrats' inevitable claims that a bill would favor the rich at the expense of the less fortunate.
“We think we can have four years,” one Trump adviser stated, encapsulating the mindset within the presidential political team. “We reject the defeatist attitude of operating from the perspective that this is our only shot and we only got two years.”
Part of Trump's enthusiasm for the midterms stems from his enjoyment of the political game—analyzing polls, making endorsements, acting as a kingmaker, and positioning himself strategically on the political chessboard. He proudly recounts his success rate in congressional contests and enjoys diving into the minutiae of his campaign strategies.
However, Trump is also driven by a desire to sidestep the prospect of enduring numerous new investigations and a potential third impeachment: “He knows what happens if we lose the House,” the adviser noted, referencing existing impeachment resolutions currently lodged in the chamber.
Historically, one might argue that even the master of political comebacks faces significant challenges—especially in the House, where parties that control trifecta governments typically lose numerous seats during midterm elections in modern history. Trump’s GOP lost 40 seats in 2018.
“For some reason, the president—whoever the president is—the midterms are tough,” Trump himself reflected at an NRCC dinner last month. “Why would they be tough? If we're doing great, they should be easy.”
Yet, there are indeed reasons for Trump to feel optimistic: Joe Biden, his predecessor, managed to limit midterm losses in 2022. The competitive landscape in Congress has contracted in recent years, leaving only a handful of districts viewed as genuinely contested by most political analysts. Furthermore, while Trump’s approval ratings may have diminished in recent months, Democrats aren't gaining ground—often, their own voters are dissatisfied with the party.
Some of the initial efforts from Trump’s political team, coordinated with congressional campaign committees, have not hit the mark. One GOP official indicated that Trump’s team advised Rep. John James to abandon a gubernatorial run and instead seek reelection in his competitively situated suburban Detroit district. James chose not to heed the advice, resulting in Republicans now needing to defend a costly open seat.
Trump also reached out personally to former rivals Chris Sununu and Brian Kemp, urging the popular ex-GOP governors to run for Senate in New Hampshire and Georgia, respectively. Neither opted to pursue that path, although Trump’s team remains actively involved in assessing other candidates for those key Democratic-held seats.
He may find more success in New York, where last week he intervened with a proactive endorsement for GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who has been signaling a potential challenge to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Trump’s endorsement—coming on the heels of MAGA favorite Elise Stefanik announcing her own gubernatorial intentions—was intended to convey a clear message: Stay in your House seat, which we want you to defend.
On Thursday, just 18 months before the general election, Trump announced a range of additional primary endorsements, supporting several vulnerable Republicans in competitive districts—even for candidates with whom he does not have strong ties—in an effort to deter primary challengers. In the previous cycle, for instance, Illinois Rep. Mike Bost faced a fierce GOP primary, only gaining a Trump endorsement after incurring significant costs to fend off a far-right challenger.
On Thursday, Trump backed Bost, effectively preventing any potential primary contest.
“This makes sure they can focus on their general from now on—not wasting money fending off a primary,” one GOP political operative texted me. “Big win.”
Republicans are hopeful that Trump will apply a similar strategy in the Senate, as efforts intensify to persuade him to support Sen. John Cornyn, who is navigating a challenging primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Nevertheless, the GOP maintains a stronger position in the Senate, and so far, Trump, who shares a close relationship with Paxton, has remained uncommitted—though a prominent member of his team has not: Trump consultant Tony Fabrizio is reportedly polling for Team Cornyn.
Additionally, one notable shift for Trump since his first term is his newfound willingness to collaborate with the party. In 2018 and 2020, Republican lawmakers privately expressed frustration that he was hoarding cash and fundraising resources for his own reelection rather than assisting the broader party.
Kevin McCarthy, who was then the House minority leader, even appealed to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who controlled the political funds, for aid. That support did not materialize.
However, now that Trump is no longer burdened by the demands of reelection, he seems ready to channel his substantial resources into the party's efforts. Trump-affiliated committees are projected to have up to half a billion dollars available by this summer, and two of his allies indicated that he plans to be generous.
“I’ll put it like this: It’s not like he’s directing people to just give to his presidential library, you know what I mean?” one ally said. “He’s not doing that. I don’t think he would be actively fundraising into the political entities the way he is unless he planned on playing in the midterms.”
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
Their rationale was that if Democrats gained majorities in 2018, it would benefit him politically—providing a political opponent across the aisle and offering a chance to navigate a gridlocked Washington as he prepared for a challenging reelection, much like Bill Clinton did.
That strategy didn’t work out at all: Trump’s agenda stalled as he faced two years of relentless investigations along with two impeachments. He ultimately lost to Joe Biden anyway.
Now, Trump is adopting a different strategy.
Just a few months into his second term, the president is deeply involved in efforts to maintain GOP majorities in Congress. Contrary to dismissing the House or Senate, he’s optimistic about overcoming historical trends and keeping Democrats from gaining committee power and subpoena authority, according to five Republicans I've spoken with, including several close Trump allies.
He’s making early endorsements to prevent contentious primary battles that might divert crucial resources from the general election. Additionally, he’s actively recruiting and discussing how to best leverage his political influence with other Republicans, while also raising significant amounts of money for the 2026 elections.
Trump’s focus on the midterms is affecting Capitol Hill as GOP legislators work to integrate his expansive domestic policy agenda into law. On various issues, Trump seems to align with swing-district moderates—the “majority makers”—whose races will be pivotal in determining the majority.
He and his team have pushed back against severe cuts to Medicaid due, in part, to the adverse political consequences. They have been accommodating to blue-state Republicans advocating for an increase in the cap on state and local tax deductions—a policy Trump enacted in 2017, which contributed to his losses in suburban districts a year later.
He’s even considered the possibility of increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans, which he believes could counter Democrats' inevitable claims that a bill would favor the rich at the expense of the less fortunate.
“We think we can have four years,” one Trump adviser stated, encapsulating the mindset within the presidential political team. “We reject the defeatist attitude of operating from the perspective that this is our only shot and we only got two years.”
Part of Trump's enthusiasm for the midterms stems from his enjoyment of the political game—analyzing polls, making endorsements, acting as a kingmaker, and positioning himself strategically on the political chessboard. He proudly recounts his success rate in congressional contests and enjoys diving into the minutiae of his campaign strategies.
However, Trump is also driven by a desire to sidestep the prospect of enduring numerous new investigations and a potential third impeachment: “He knows what happens if we lose the House,” the adviser noted, referencing existing impeachment resolutions currently lodged in the chamber.
Historically, one might argue that even the master of political comebacks faces significant challenges—especially in the House, where parties that control trifecta governments typically lose numerous seats during midterm elections in modern history. Trump’s GOP lost 40 seats in 2018.
“For some reason, the president—whoever the president is—the midterms are tough,” Trump himself reflected at an NRCC dinner last month. “Why would they be tough? If we're doing great, they should be easy.”
Yet, there are indeed reasons for Trump to feel optimistic: Joe Biden, his predecessor, managed to limit midterm losses in 2022. The competitive landscape in Congress has contracted in recent years, leaving only a handful of districts viewed as genuinely contested by most political analysts. Furthermore, while Trump’s approval ratings may have diminished in recent months, Democrats aren't gaining ground—often, their own voters are dissatisfied with the party.
Some of the initial efforts from Trump’s political team, coordinated with congressional campaign committees, have not hit the mark. One GOP official indicated that Trump’s team advised Rep. John James to abandon a gubernatorial run and instead seek reelection in his competitively situated suburban Detroit district. James chose not to heed the advice, resulting in Republicans now needing to defend a costly open seat.
Trump also reached out personally to former rivals Chris Sununu and Brian Kemp, urging the popular ex-GOP governors to run for Senate in New Hampshire and Georgia, respectively. Neither opted to pursue that path, although Trump’s team remains actively involved in assessing other candidates for those key Democratic-held seats.
He may find more success in New York, where last week he intervened with a proactive endorsement for GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who has been signaling a potential challenge to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Trump’s endorsement—coming on the heels of MAGA favorite Elise Stefanik announcing her own gubernatorial intentions—was intended to convey a clear message: Stay in your House seat, which we want you to defend.
On Thursday, just 18 months before the general election, Trump announced a range of additional primary endorsements, supporting several vulnerable Republicans in competitive districts—even for candidates with whom he does not have strong ties—in an effort to deter primary challengers. In the previous cycle, for instance, Illinois Rep. Mike Bost faced a fierce GOP primary, only gaining a Trump endorsement after incurring significant costs to fend off a far-right challenger.
On Thursday, Trump backed Bost, effectively preventing any potential primary contest.
“This makes sure they can focus on their general from now on—not wasting money fending off a primary,” one GOP political operative texted me. “Big win.”
Republicans are hopeful that Trump will apply a similar strategy in the Senate, as efforts intensify to persuade him to support Sen. John Cornyn, who is navigating a challenging primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Nevertheless, the GOP maintains a stronger position in the Senate, and so far, Trump, who shares a close relationship with Paxton, has remained uncommitted—though a prominent member of his team has not: Trump consultant Tony Fabrizio is reportedly polling for Team Cornyn.
Additionally, one notable shift for Trump since his first term is his newfound willingness to collaborate with the party. In 2018 and 2020, Republican lawmakers privately expressed frustration that he was hoarding cash and fundraising resources for his own reelection rather than assisting the broader party.
Kevin McCarthy, who was then the House minority leader, even appealed to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who controlled the political funds, for aid. That support did not materialize.
However, now that Trump is no longer burdened by the demands of reelection, he seems ready to channel his substantial resources into the party's efforts. Trump-affiliated committees are projected to have up to half a billion dollars available by this summer, and two of his allies indicated that he plans to be generous.
“I’ll put it like this: It’s not like he’s directing people to just give to his presidential library, you know what I mean?” one ally said. “He’s not doing that. I don’t think he would be actively fundraising into the political entities the way he is unless he planned on playing in the midterms.”
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
