The unexpected victory of Prime Minister Mark Carney
The journey from banker to ballot box for this rookie politician in Canada has been fueled by the influence of Trump and a country that is fatigued by disorder.
TroibNews 
OTTAWA — Only this campaign could have produced Prime Minister Mark Carney.
With the demeanor of a natural technocrat, the former banker managed to convince millions of Canadians that he was the right choice to lead the nation through significant challenges, particularly the unrelenting onslaught from President Donald Trump.
“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” Trump tweeted on Election Day, urging Canadians to align with him rather than with anyone on the ballot.
This late intervention from the White House served as a stark reminder for many Canadians of the importance of calm and competence in their leadership.
Since returning to the White House, Trump has repeatedly targeted Canada, infuriating many with tariffs and discussions about annexation, all while stirring up patriotic sentiment.
When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January amid considerable unpopularity, Carney was not yet involved in politics. By March, he was selected by the Liberals to lead the party and the nation — and on Monday, he was elected by millions as a counter to Trump.
“My message to every Canadian is this,” Carney stated early Tuesday morning while results were still being tallied. “No matter where you live, no matter what language you speak, no matter how you voted, I will always do my best to represent everyone who calls Canada home.”
Carney may not be the most charismatic person, but this characteristic was embraced by those who backed his leadership bid after Trudeau's unexpected exit.
"We're not looking for charisma, we're looking for competence and someone who's real and someone who's authentic," MP Ali Ehsassi shared in his Toronto campaign office just before Election Day.
Ehsassi met Carney about a year and a half prior, also attending an event where Carney spoke last April.
What Ehsassi observed was more of an explanation than a campaign pitch.
"It wasn't political language. It wasn't sloganeering. So I was a bit concerned, to be honest with you, at that particular event,” he recalled.
While Carney's voice occasionally rises during speeches, much of his tone on the campaign trail mirrored a lecture he might have given at a global conference on green finance.
"I think that's very deliberate," Ehsassi noted.
Most political analysts did not expect that someone so rooted in numbers and lacking in political experience could revive his party's fortunes. At the time of Trudeau's resignation, the Liberals were languishing in the polls.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was ahead by 25 points, virtually guaranteeing a victory at the next electoral opportunity. Many Liberal staffers had become disillusioned, and those who remained were doubtful about a comeback.
"Bankers are very cautious personalities," Ehsassi explained. "But despite the challenges that were quite obvious to everyone… he had the backbone to take the plunge."
In January, events began unfolding at a rapid pace.
A newly inaugurated Trump escalated the tariff battle with Canada and intensified his discussion about the possibility of annexation. As Carney vied for the leadership against former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, calls for Trudeau's exit intensified after Freeland's resignation in December.
Carney outperformed Freeland in fundraising and endorsements, ultimately seizing the leadership when votes were counted on March 9. Nine days later, following a whirlwind trip to Europe and a series of significant policy reversals from Trudeau's era, Carney called for an election.
By the time he stepped onto his campaign bus, the Liberals had finally gained a polling lead for the first time since 2023. He barely had time to settle in, let alone assemble a staff.
The polling trends continued to improve as an intriguing shift was observed: Progressive New Democratic Party voters were shifting their support to the centrist banker. Even voters in Quebec seemed unfazed by Carney's basic command of French.
Events began to unfold favorably for him, but Seamus O'Regan, a former Cabinet minister who stepped away from politics before the election, argued against dismissing it as mere luck.
"There were a number of things that lined up for him, no question. But there's always an opportunity to get that wrong," O'Regan remarked. "The onus is on [him] not to screw that up. There were all sorts of opportunities where he could have and he didn't, and he's proven himself to be a lot more adept at retail politics and strategy than a lot of people were giving him credit for at the beginning."
Carney's emergence as a leadership contender was enough to convince Anita Anand, a Cabinet minister who thought she was exiting politics, to return for another chance.
In a late-March interview, the former law professor stressed that her decision to run again just two weeks after expressing a desire to return to academia was not swayed by her electoral prospects.
In the campaign's first week, she sensed a shift in voter sentiment.
"Six months ago, eight months ago, we did not have the Canada-U.S. situation that we have had, and have right now, and people thought, 'the Liberals have had their chance, and now it's time for change,'" she said.
What prompted this change? "It's the threat. The existential economic threat."
When Trump was elected last November, Carney was still waiting in the wings, keen to find the right moment to enter politics.
For years, the banker, with extensive experience in both the private and public sectors, had quietly expressed interest in leading the Prime Minister’s Office.
Whispers of his ambitions began in 2012, during a vacation at the Nova Scotia cottage of Scott Brison, a notable Liberal and fellow banker.
However, those rumors went nowhere.
Upon returning from a seven-year term at the Bank of England, Carney's political aspirations became more overt. In 2020, following Trudeau’s dismissal of his finance minister, Bill Morneau, speculation about Carney making a political move resurfaced.
He officially joined the Liberal party at a convention in 2021, perfecting his centrist approach at various keynotes, which intrigued many Liberals eager for change.
Despite his sustained interest in the Prime Minister’s office, he was hesitant to actively pursue the role.
Last summer, reports of friction between Trudeau and Freeland prompted further speculation about Carney potentially being courted for a Cabinet position.
In September, he accepted an economic advisory role with the Liberal party, a cautious step into the political arena just as rebellion was brewing within the caucus.
By November, Trudeau managed to retain his position, but the political landscape dramatically shifted when Freeland abruptly resigned from Cabinet on December 16, just hours before presenting the government's latest economic plan.
Once again, The Globe reported that Trudeau had offered Carney a Cabinet position as finance minister.
Within weeks, the power dynamics changed rapidly — Carney found himself stepping into leadership while Trudeau exited.
"He was very, very adept at dancing, yeah," O'Regan commented on the prime minister's timing. "And when the opportunity came, he went for it, and none of that's easy."
Jessica Kline for TROIB News
With the demeanor of a natural technocrat, the former banker managed to convince millions of Canadians that he was the right choice to lead the nation through significant challenges, particularly the unrelenting onslaught from President Donald Trump.
“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” Trump tweeted on Election Day, urging Canadians to align with him rather than with anyone on the ballot.
This late intervention from the White House served as a stark reminder for many Canadians of the importance of calm and competence in their leadership.
Since returning to the White House, Trump has repeatedly targeted Canada, infuriating many with tariffs and discussions about annexation, all while stirring up patriotic sentiment.
When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January amid considerable unpopularity, Carney was not yet involved in politics. By March, he was selected by the Liberals to lead the party and the nation — and on Monday, he was elected by millions as a counter to Trump.
“My message to every Canadian is this,” Carney stated early Tuesday morning while results were still being tallied. “No matter where you live, no matter what language you speak, no matter how you voted, I will always do my best to represent everyone who calls Canada home.”
Carney may not be the most charismatic person, but this characteristic was embraced by those who backed his leadership bid after Trudeau's unexpected exit.
"We're not looking for charisma, we're looking for competence and someone who's real and someone who's authentic," MP Ali Ehsassi shared in his Toronto campaign office just before Election Day.
Ehsassi met Carney about a year and a half prior, also attending an event where Carney spoke last April.
What Ehsassi observed was more of an explanation than a campaign pitch.
"It wasn't political language. It wasn't sloganeering. So I was a bit concerned, to be honest with you, at that particular event,” he recalled.
While Carney's voice occasionally rises during speeches, much of his tone on the campaign trail mirrored a lecture he might have given at a global conference on green finance.
"I think that's very deliberate," Ehsassi noted.
Most political analysts did not expect that someone so rooted in numbers and lacking in political experience could revive his party's fortunes. At the time of Trudeau's resignation, the Liberals were languishing in the polls.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was ahead by 25 points, virtually guaranteeing a victory at the next electoral opportunity. Many Liberal staffers had become disillusioned, and those who remained were doubtful about a comeback.
"Bankers are very cautious personalities," Ehsassi explained. "But despite the challenges that were quite obvious to everyone… he had the backbone to take the plunge."
In January, events began unfolding at a rapid pace.
A newly inaugurated Trump escalated the tariff battle with Canada and intensified his discussion about the possibility of annexation. As Carney vied for the leadership against former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, calls for Trudeau's exit intensified after Freeland's resignation in December.
Carney outperformed Freeland in fundraising and endorsements, ultimately seizing the leadership when votes were counted on March 9. Nine days later, following a whirlwind trip to Europe and a series of significant policy reversals from Trudeau's era, Carney called for an election.
By the time he stepped onto his campaign bus, the Liberals had finally gained a polling lead for the first time since 2023. He barely had time to settle in, let alone assemble a staff.
The polling trends continued to improve as an intriguing shift was observed: Progressive New Democratic Party voters were shifting their support to the centrist banker. Even voters in Quebec seemed unfazed by Carney's basic command of French.
Events began to unfold favorably for him, but Seamus O'Regan, a former Cabinet minister who stepped away from politics before the election, argued against dismissing it as mere luck.
"There were a number of things that lined up for him, no question. But there's always an opportunity to get that wrong," O'Regan remarked. "The onus is on [him] not to screw that up. There were all sorts of opportunities where he could have and he didn't, and he's proven himself to be a lot more adept at retail politics and strategy than a lot of people were giving him credit for at the beginning."
Carney's emergence as a leadership contender was enough to convince Anita Anand, a Cabinet minister who thought she was exiting politics, to return for another chance.
In a late-March interview, the former law professor stressed that her decision to run again just two weeks after expressing a desire to return to academia was not swayed by her electoral prospects.
In the campaign's first week, she sensed a shift in voter sentiment.
"Six months ago, eight months ago, we did not have the Canada-U.S. situation that we have had, and have right now, and people thought, 'the Liberals have had their chance, and now it's time for change,'" she said.
What prompted this change? "It's the threat. The existential economic threat."
When Trump was elected last November, Carney was still waiting in the wings, keen to find the right moment to enter politics.
For years, the banker, with extensive experience in both the private and public sectors, had quietly expressed interest in leading the Prime Minister’s Office.
Whispers of his ambitions began in 2012, during a vacation at the Nova Scotia cottage of Scott Brison, a notable Liberal and fellow banker.
However, those rumors went nowhere.
Upon returning from a seven-year term at the Bank of England, Carney's political aspirations became more overt. In 2020, following Trudeau’s dismissal of his finance minister, Bill Morneau, speculation about Carney making a political move resurfaced.
He officially joined the Liberal party at a convention in 2021, perfecting his centrist approach at various keynotes, which intrigued many Liberals eager for change.
Despite his sustained interest in the Prime Minister’s office, he was hesitant to actively pursue the role.
Last summer, reports of friction between Trudeau and Freeland prompted further speculation about Carney potentially being courted for a Cabinet position.
In September, he accepted an economic advisory role with the Liberal party, a cautious step into the political arena just as rebellion was brewing within the caucus.
By November, Trudeau managed to retain his position, but the political landscape dramatically shifted when Freeland abruptly resigned from Cabinet on December 16, just hours before presenting the government's latest economic plan.
Once again, The Globe reported that Trudeau had offered Carney a Cabinet position as finance minister.
Within weeks, the power dynamics changed rapidly — Carney found himself stepping into leadership while Trudeau exited.
"He was very, very adept at dancing, yeah," O'Regan commented on the prime minister's timing. "And when the opportunity came, he went for it, and none of that's easy."
Jessica Kline for TROIB News
