Russia predicts significant rise in budget deficit
Russia's budget deficit is projected to exceed three times the government’s initial target for 2025, as reported by the Finance Ministry. This revised forecast is influenced by declining global oil prices and heightened trade tensions. In a...
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Russia's budget deficit is projected to exceed three times the government’s initial target for 2025, as reported by the Finance Ministry. This revised forecast is influenced by declining global oil prices and heightened trade tensions.
In a warning last month, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov highlighted the risks of budgetary strain due to falling oil revenues coupled with global economic instability. He pointed out that ongoing trade wars are diminishing export prospects for numerous countries, including Russia.
The ministry now anticipates a fiscal deficit of 1.7% of GDP for this year, significantly up from the previously estimated 0.5%. The expected budget shortfall is approximately 3.8 trillion rubles.
“The budget priorities remain unchanged: Social support for citizens, funding for national defense and security, and assistance for the families of participants in the special military operation, ensuring the country’s technological leadership,” Siluanov remarked regarding the updated forecast.
While the economic growth outlook for 2025 remains at 2.5%, the inflation estimate has been adjusted from 4.5% to 7.6% by year’s end. Additionally, the spending plan for 2025 has increased by 830 billion rubles.
The forecast for Russian oil prices has seen a reduction from $69.7 to $56 per barrel, with projected oil and gas revenues expected to reach 8.32 trillion rubles, constituting 3.7% of GDP, according to the ministry.
Recent weeks have witnessed a decline in global oil prices due to rising supply and economic uncertainty, with demand being affected by a global economic slowdown largely driven by trade tensions. Notably, oil prices fell by more than 11% in April.
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
In a warning last month, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov highlighted the risks of budgetary strain due to falling oil revenues coupled with global economic instability. He pointed out that ongoing trade wars are diminishing export prospects for numerous countries, including Russia.
The ministry now anticipates a fiscal deficit of 1.7% of GDP for this year, significantly up from the previously estimated 0.5%. The expected budget shortfall is approximately 3.8 trillion rubles.
“The budget priorities remain unchanged: Social support for citizens, funding for national defense and security, and assistance for the families of participants in the special military operation, ensuring the country’s technological leadership,” Siluanov remarked regarding the updated forecast.
While the economic growth outlook for 2025 remains at 2.5%, the inflation estimate has been adjusted from 4.5% to 7.6% by year’s end. Additionally, the spending plan for 2025 has increased by 830 billion rubles.
The forecast for Russian oil prices has seen a reduction from $69.7 to $56 per barrel, with projected oil and gas revenues expected to reach 8.32 trillion rubles, constituting 3.7% of GDP, according to the ministry.
Recent weeks have witnessed a decline in global oil prices due to rising supply and economic uncertainty, with demand being affected by a global economic slowdown largely driven by trade tensions. Notably, oil prices fell by more than 11% in April.
Lucas Dupont for TROIB News
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