Has Trump Lost Sight of His Own Influence?

It has been surprising to hear President Donald Trump and his team claim that there’s nothing they can do to secure the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man they acknowledged in court they mistakenly deported to an El Salvador prison along with other migrants.

The Trump administration’s image is heavily associated with strength, particularly on global matters, making this sense of helplessness seem out of character. Trump often boasts about how he’s the one holding the cards. This situation also contradicts his notable achievements in freeing individuals wrongfully detained abroad, including prisoners from adversarial countries like Venezuela and Iran. Here, however, the leader of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, is a Trump ally, and the U.S. is compensating him for detaining Abrego Garcia and others whose legal status Trump has questioned. It stands to reason that Bukele, who is clearly eager to maintain a good relationship with Trump, might be persuaded to release Abrego Garcia.

While the Trump administration may be reluctant to facilitate Garcia's return—as mandated by the Supreme Court—it is misleading to claim there’s nothing they can do.

When I reached out to five current and former U.S. officials about this situation, I found I wasn’t imagining things; both Trump's and Bukele's claims of helplessness strike many as absurd, if not Kafkaesque. Some officials spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid backlash, but most were willing to provide their views publicly and offered a range of potential actions Trump could take.

Ned Price, a former official in the Biden administration, suggested that for now, Trump and his aides seem more focused on pleasing the GOP base by attacking migrants than on upholding the rule of law: “They see this as a fight they want to have.” Eliot Cohen, a diplomat from the George W. Bush era and a frequent Trump critic, described the situation as one of “brutality,” “cruelty,” and “lawlessness” that are “performative and part of the brand.”

So, let's consider the performance at hand.

It’s possible that Trump—who sometimes appears to be unaware of the details concerning Abrego Garcia—has forgotten the extent of his own influence in this area. What options does he really have if he decides that Abrego Garcia, along with other deported individuals lacking due process, needs to return to the U.S.?

Officials suggest that the first step is simply to ask Bukele to release the men. Bukele, who self-identifies as the “world’s coolest dictator,” likely won’t deny a request from Trump.

However, if Bukele resists, Trump has various incentives and pressure strategies at his disposal to persuade the young leader to comply.

On the incentive front, Trump has multiple options. For example, he could increase U.S. financial support to El Salvador, lift tariffs, or endorse some of its priorities in international discussions.

Pressure methods are more complex but can be very effective.

One immediate action Trump could take is to cut off the substantial U.S. financial assistance that goes to Bukele for managing the notorious CECOT prison, where most of the deportees handed over to El Salvador have been kept indefinitely.

Another option could be to impose targeted visa bans, potentially barring Bukele's close relatives from entering the U.S., or applying broader measures to larger groups. For instance, in early April, the Trump administration issued an all-encompassing visa ban on South Sudanese citizens because the country’s government had refused to accept a deportee. Swiftly after that, South Sudan agreed to accept the deportee, yet the visa ban remained largely in place.

Regarding economic sanctions, these can also vary significantly in scope and impact. During his first term, Trump was incensed over the detention of an American pastor in Turkey, leading him to impose sanctions on two high-ranking Turkish officials—a stunning move that impacted a NATO ally and caused Turkey’s currency to plummet. Consequently, Turkey quickly released the pastor, Andrew Brunson.

Trump has also utilized tariffs similarly to sanctions, deploying them as a remedy for issues not strictly tied to the economy. He cited the influx of drugs, notably fentanyl, and migrants into U.S. territory as reasons to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Should Bukele resist returning detainees, his country could face higher tariffs as a consequence.

El Salvador is heavily dependent on remittances from its citizens living in the U.S., which presents another leverage point for Trump, who might consider restricting such financial flows to the country.

Trump could also exert diplomatic pressure, which could range from expelling Salvadoran diplomats to collaborating with other nations to isolate the country. Often, diplomatic negotiations prove fruitful, as evidenced by Trump’s earlier agreements involving prisoner exchanges with adversarial factions like the Afghan Taliban and Iran.

Additionally, the U.S. has shown a willingness in the past to deploy troops to apprehend fugitives or rescue hostages.

I sought comments on these strategies from White House representatives but received no response.

Ultimately, this situation may hinge on whether Trump believes that the advantages of bringing Abrego Garcia back outweigh the benefits of sticking with the current course of action.

As it stands, despite admissions from the Department of Justice regarding the errors in court, Trump and his aides refuse to declare that they mistakenly deported Abrego Garcia to El Salvador—the one country a judge had ordered he should not be sent to due to threats against his life. Instead, they are framing him as a terrorist gang member, despite the absence of any evidence for such claims and his not having been charged with a crime.

Currently, polling on Trump’s handling of immigration presents mixed results, though there is some indication that his numbers may be declining due to the Abrego Garcia case.

Democrats seem to see this as a crucial political battle, evidenced by a growing number traveling to El Salvador to visit Abrego Garcia and other detainees. The Supreme Court’s directive to halt deportations adds to the political pressure on Trump. Furthermore, Trump’s implications of sending U.S. citizens to the El Salvador prison may have opened a door for Democrats to focus the discussion on the rule of law and due process rather than the more contentious issue of immigration.

“The president — I think he’s making a mistake,” noted Ivo Daalder, a foreign policy analyst and former U.S. ambassador to NATO. “It would have been much better to have this guy back and then he could have just moved on.”

Meanwhile, Bukele has floated the idea of a deal reminiscent of a prisoner exchange with Venezuela, which includes many of the individuals Trump has sent to the CECOT prison. Should this succeed, it could make reversing Trump's deportations even more challenging.

In recent years, numerous world leaders have increasingly aligned with one political party—usually the GOP—in the United States. As I have mentioned before, this can be an effective strategy: if the party you choose gains power, they may offer assistance, and if they lose, it can become more difficult for the winners to target you.

By aligning closely with Trump, Bukele may be playing such a strategic game. However, there are still inherent risks.

If backlash against Trump grows sufficiently in the coming years, Democrats could reclaim considerable power. They would possess the same levers that Trump has, from tariffs to remittances, and might be less hesitant to utilize them.

Bukele might want to keep this in mind as he and Trump maintain the posture that they are unable to facilitate Abrego Garcia’s return to America.

Emily Johnson for TROIB News